Outlook on the New Administration: What’s Next for Renewable Fuels?
If past is prologue, while the second Trump administration is expected to take a number of actions that could lead to increased volatility with respect to renewable identification number (“RIN”) prices just as the first did, there are signals that the administration may take a more deliberate approach this time to reduce shocks to the RIN market, all the more given the interest in supporting renewable fuel production as a domestic fuel source. And while the California Air Resources Board (“CARB”) took steps last year that impact the ability of biogas projects to generate Low Carbon Fuel Standard (“LCFS”) credits, state legislative headwinds could eventually result in the opening of new environmental credit markets to shore up demand for renewable natural gas (“RNG”). Overall, while significant uncertainty and risk of RIN volatility remains, there continue to be signals from both the federal executive and legislative branches in support of the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (“RFS”).