US Emissions Dropped in 2023: Rhodium
In 2023, the US experienced something it hasn’t since before the COVID-19 pandemic: a growing economy paired with shrinking greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. After two years of emissions growth, while the country rebounded from the pandemic and its associated economic disruptions, we estimate that emissions were down 1.9% year-on-year in 2023, while the economy expanded by 2.4% over the course of the year. US emissions remained below pre-pandemic levels and dropped to 17.2% below 2005 levels.
A relatively mild winter and declining generation from coal power plants drove down emissions in the power and buildings sectors. Transportation sector emissions rose by 1.6%, though fuel consumption still held below pre-pandemic levels, while increases in domestic oil and gas production led to a 1% increase in industrial emissions. It’s still too early to say whether the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) will fully achieve their projected emissions impacts. A decline in economy-wide emissions is a step in the right direction, but that rate of decline needs to more than triple and sustain at that level every year from 2024 through 2030 in order to meet the US’s climate target under the Paris Agreement of a 50-52% reduction in emissions.